How to bet the Marlins vs the Phillies (September 6)

Marlins vs Phyllis Odds

Marlins Prospect +200
Phyllis Prospect -245
Above under 7 (-104 / -118)
time 6:45 PM ET
cross odds Vandel. Get up to a minute MLB . odds over here.

Super Tuesday is a big deal in Major League Baseball as all 30 teams fit in and take the field this evening.

With so much value on the board, it’s a perfect opportunity to find additional value. One of the best ways to do this is through the same Parlay game.

When betting on SGP, I am looking for a game with which I can easily craft a game script. For this Marlins-Phillies game, I see Aaron Nola closing in on the Marlins on a long start.

FanDuel’s SGP feature allows you to choose alternate lines for things like strikes and totals, and I’m taking advantage of those features in this play.

Parlay (+198):

  • Philadelphia Phillies ML (-235)
  • Aaron Nola 6+ Strike Out (-720)
  • under 6.5 (-106)

Parlay Same Game – Marlins Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies ML (-235)

The Marlins are in free fall, having canceled the season and are now in jeopardy because they didn’t reach their season win total.

The Phillies are in the middle of the Wild Card race, and are currently third in NL Wild Card by two games on Milwaukee. One of the ways they got there was by hitting the Marlins.

Phillies have won four of their last five games with Miami, defeating the Fish on a 22-7 aggregate. As the Phillies heat up for the final stretch and the Marlins fight for the draft picks, this could get even uglier.

It also helps that the Marlins start south by Jesus Luzardo. I scored FELIZ 143 WRC+ Against LHPs over the past month, good for third place in baseball.

In the meantime, I don’t expect the Marlins to score against Nola in this match (more on that later).

under 6.5 (-106)

However, Luzardo has been fantastic early on this season since returning from injury. He’s now made 65 1/3 rounds on 12 starting with 3.44 ERA. In addition, its 3.04 xERA indicates a more positive regression.

I think NOLA is one of the best shooters in National League. He’s made more innings than any baseball player has saved Sandy Alcantara, and Nola did so using a 3.43 ERA while accumulating 4.8 fWAR. However, his xERA sits at 2.71 and his xFIP It is at 2.87, which also indicates a further positive slope.

NOLA will also face the Marlins. Miami put together a cumulative 0.572 OPS and 65 WRC+ over the past month, with the team coming in at 0.191 overall. This crime is dead.

The #marlins You have 0.585 OPS in the month of August. This is indeed the worst one-month mark in franchise history. They hit a .198 group as a team.

– Louis Adeo Weiss (@addeo_louis00) August 31, 2022

And if that streak seems low, remember that the Marlins have only scored seven runs over their last five games against the Phillies. This is why Phillies and Marlins have not reached this total in their last four encounters.

Aaron Nola 6+ Strike Out (-720)

The juice Heavy on this, but it’s worth paying a little extra for our SGP.

Let me explain.

If you buy an extra 2.5 strike, you basically get a lock. Nola has scored six or more goals in 20 of his 26 appearances this season and 19 of his last 23.

Nola has also faced Miami four times since the start of 2021. He has scored at least six hits in all four games, having scored exactly six twice. If you include the other two starts, Nola has made 33 Marlins total in 26 runs at a 33% CSW.

The Marlins also allowed the last three opposing shooters to score at least six hits, with Max Fried, Bryce Elder and Charlie Morton all finishing six hits on the exact point.

I feel more comfortable playing NOLA in six strokes given the historical trends. While I don’t feel comfortable playing it as a live game, it’s a good prop to add to SGP.

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