Notable bets – hot NFL underdogs have smiling bookmakers

That sly smile the bookmaker has had over recent football seasons can be traced back to an impressive run of underdogs in the NFL, who have increasingly been covering the spread and outright turmoil during one of the worst betting favorites of the past 20 years:

  • The Underdogs have covered the spread in more games than favorite games in four consecutive regular seasons.

  • The Underdogs had an outright upset 99 last year, winning nearly 37% of games during last year’s 18-week regular season. The Underdogs’ win percentage has been tied to the highest in the past 15 seasons, and the Surprise 99 has been the biggest since 2006. (The first-ever 18th week saw six upsets, but even without them, 2021 was one of only five regular seasons in the 20 years. past to display more than 90 overt perturbations.)

  • 2021 was the fourth consecutive season with at least one win of 15 or more points in a row. 2021 had two, both Jaguars. There have been no disruptions of this magnitude in the previous 22 seasons, according to ESPN statistics and information.

In 2017, favorite games covered prevalence in 54.4% of games, the second highest mark in the past 20 years. The underdogs started getting hot the following season, which conveniently coincided with these fraudulent bookmakers with a ruling by the US Supreme Court that kick-started legal sports betting on a massive scale in the country. Since the 2018 Supreme Court decision, the underdogs in the NFL have covered 53.6% of their regular season games. Nevada sportsbooks have set all-time records for the amount won in football in three of the past four years.

“I think I can speak for most bookmakers…when the underdogs win, it’s usually good for the house,” said Adam Boleyn, a veteran Las Vegas bookmaker for Caesars Sportsbook. “Sharp bettors are a different animal, but the public just loves to bet on favorites.”

Bolin believes the amount underdog players bet is increasing, but he still estimates that there is more money on the candidates in 85% to 90% of NFL games.

Bookmakers pay attention weekly to the liability that accrues to financial line deals, which have become increasingly popular in recent years and are often laden with big favourites.

“We’ve seen the underdogs win more games outright than they have in recent years, and that definitely helps when it comes to money offers and harassment,” Paulin said. “Usually when you have just a few underdogs to get in, that almost eliminates your week.”


NFL odds and ends: by the numbers

$20,000: The largest Super Bowl bet in terms of amount risked accepting Caesars Sportsbook during the off season was $20,000 on bills at 13-2 with a potential net profit of $130,000.

Other teams that have attracted five-figure Super Bowl bets this off-season on Caesars Sportsbook include:

  • $15,000 on Broncos (16-1) to win a net worth of $240,000

  • $12,000 on Ravens (22-1) to win $264,000 net

  • $11,000 on ponies (25-1) to win a net amount of $275,000

  • $11,000 on The Packers (12-1) to win a net amount of $132,000

  • $10,000 on Saints (50-1) to win a net worth of $500,000

  • $10,000 Pirates (40-1) to win a net $400,000

18%: The Bills, the unanimous favorite, drew 18% of the total money betting the DraftKings’ odds of winning the Super Bowl, more than twice as much as any other team.

Million dollars: One of the first bets Caesars Sportsbook took when it posted its Super Bowl LVII odds in January was $5,000 on the Jets at 200-1. The bet will pay out a million dollars if the planes win it all.

$2 million: Several sportsbooks reported that she took big bets on dolphins from a bookmaker in Tennessee on Wednesday. According to BetMGM, the bookmaker put in $900,000 in Miami to win over 7.5 games on 250 odds, $100,000 on flippers to make the playoffs at +135 and $10,000 to win the Super Bowl at 40-1. Bets will pay out $2 million.

On the same day, Caesars Sportsbook reported receiving a total of $5,000 on two bets on quarterback Dolphins. Tua Tagoviloa To win the MVP award at 75-1 and 60-1. Combined, the bets will pay out a net amount of $345,000. Entering the season, Tagovailoa was bet with more money than winning the MVP award Patrick Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers.

700 yards: Tagovailoa’s season pass yards opened at 3,050.5 and had grown to 3,750.5 by September at Caesars Sportsbook.

14.6%: The percentage of games that have finished by three games over the past five seasons, the largest of any number.

Most common winning margins over the past five seasons by match percentage:

  • 3 (14.6%)

  • 7 (8.5%)

  • 6 (6.4%)

  • 14 (5.7%)

  • 10 (5.4%)

53.5%: The percentage of regular season games that stayed below last season’s total, the highest in four years. An average of 46.0 points was scored per game last season.

49.6: Average points scored in regular season matches played in January, the highest of any month.

1: The number of seasons with which host teams have covered the spread in more matches than road teams in the past five years. Road teams have covered the spread in more matches than domestic teams in the past four seasons, but they are close (51.7%).

880.5 yards: More money was bet over 880.5 yards to receive the rams Allen Robinson II than any other player prop all season in PointsBet.

98.4%: At BetRivers, the sports book operator, 98.4% of the money bet in the first week game between the Seahawks and the Broncos on the Denver favorite. Broncos are a 6-point favorite.

97%: In BetMGM’s ‘Yes/No’ odds for qualifying, black is the most popular bet with 97% of the money wagered on ‘Yes’. Detroit opened at +500 for the playoffs. The Lions enter the season at +350 to reach the playoffs.

23%: Lions coach Dan Campbell attracted 23% of the total money bet on the DraftKings odds of winning Coach of the Year award, the most of any coach’s bet. Campbell 18-1.

485.5 yards: Over/Under the 49ers Quarterback Tree LanceThe 485.5-yard dash yards opened at Caesars Sportsbook and attracted more money than any other pre-season player. The number had risen to 625.5 yards by September. More money was wagered on Lance’s streaming arenas than any other player support aspect. Lance’s flowing yards attracted the most third handle among the Caesars player props.

500 dollars: A bettor with PointsBet risked $500 on the Jaguars midfielder Trevor Lawrence To lead the league in passing yards at 400-1.

* ESPN Statistics and Information Researcher Zack Rosenberg contributed to this article.