Unfortunately, the Tampa Bay Rays could not complete the sweep of the New York Yankees, but they managed to win the series. The Rays withdrew in 4.0 games from the Yankees and the head-to-head tie-breaker is still alive.
The Seattle Mariners captured the first wild card spot with seven straight wins. The Mariners are 1.0 game ahead of the Rays and 2.0 games ahead of the Toronto Blue Jays. The Baltimore Orioles are 2.5 games away from the field (3.5 games behind the Rice) while the Cleveland Guardians and Minnesota Twins are tied in the MLS Central (6.0 games behind the Rice).
It would take nearly a miracle for the Boston Red Sox to make the playoffs. They’ve won five games in a row but that still puts them at 7.0 playoffs and 8.0 games behind the Rays. They are looking for an even bigger uphill battle than the lead they blew up in September 2011. They need to close a pretty big gap while traversing multiple teams. They’re not dead yet, but the rays might help dig a hole too big to conquer with a chain victory. One win in the last six would give the Rays a head-to-head tiebreak.
Monday 4:10 pm: Luis Patino vs Michael Washa
Tuesday 6:40 pm: Drew Rasmussen vs. Rich Hill
Wednesday 6:40 p.m.: Jeffrey Springs vs. Fuck
Michael Wacha is spending the season that Reyes hoped last year. Over 95.0 rounds posted 2.56 ERA / 3.80 FIP / 3.96 xFIP. It’s about half a run better by FIP in 2022, but the biggest difference is the roughly 2.50 ERA variance. His strike rate decreased to 20.1% while his gait rate increased to 6.9%. Not the combination you are looking for for better results. The biggest difference is its LOB% from 69.7% to 82.6%. The Wacha throws a 93.2 mAh four-seam fastball, shifts 84.8 mAh, and cuts 89.0 mph as its three main pitches. Every now and then he’ll throw a 74.9 mph curve ball. Change is his best showing and he’s taken a 33.5% whiff this season. This leads to a major split in the reverse platoon of his career and Rays will throw a right-hand stacked squad to try to avoid change. He still throws the change against the right hitter but with a much lower frequency.
Rich Hill gets off to a great start against the rays a week and a half ago. Hit 11 strikes over 7.0 innings without goals. It was a solid performance for Boston when he was healthy. He rolled out 4.52 ERA/4.04 FIP/4.22 xFIP on 93.2 rounds. The Red Sox have generally protected him from the third time during the order, so I would expect more of the same unless he is able to repeat his last start against the Rays. Hill throws a 71.9-mph curve ball as the most used pitch. He would add a speedball of 88.4 mph, four stitches and an 84.4 mph cutout to round out his group. Against left-handed hitters, he’ll replace most of his curves with a 69.3 mph slider. Against the right hand it will occasionally shift 82.2 mph.
The Red Sox has one of the most serious crimes.
Red Sox hit .260/.320/.412 and subtracted 103 wRC+. They do not hit the ball out of the garden as frequently but rather settle at the base. They are a fierce team on the board that takes advantage of a stadium that amplifies BABIP to achieve this level of OBP.
Xander Bogaerts (140 wRC+) and Rafael Devers (141 wRC+) lead the way offensively.
JD Martinez (115 wRC+) hasn’t been the bat the Red Sox is used to, but he’s still an effective bat.
Trevor Storey (105 hip+), Alex Verdogo (103 and RC+) and Christian Arroyo (106 and RC+) were solid hitters.
Tommy Pham (114 wRC+ with Boston) was a solid pick for the Red Sox on the trade deadline.
Rob Refsnyder (152 wRC+) has amazing performance for a small sample size. He runs a high BABIP but has over 138 board appearances.
Yesterday the Red Sox added one of the top potential players at Triston Casas. He went 1 vs 4 on his first major league appearance.