Series Preview: Seattle Mariners vs Atlanta Braves

In this series with Atlanta BravesThe Mariners face the winning team they will face for the rest of the year. On the plus side, everything descends from here (as far as opponent records go). However, our schedule weakened late in the season and the last streak loss to white socks Make the challenge to take on the brave ones especially strong. Especially with the Blue Jays playing Rangers this weekend, every Mariners loss runs the risk of being ceded to a Wild Card race (just as every win is an opportunity for gains). I have to say, it feels good and too distracting to play with the bets in September!

By the way, this is only the sixth series ever in which sailors and braves have played each other. I learned this truth in Battery power preview From this series from an Atlanta perspective.

Quick overview

brave sailors
brave sailors
1 . game Friday, September 9 | 6:40 pm
RHB Charlie Morton LHP Ruby Ray
53% 47%
2 . game Saturday 10 September | 6:10 pm
LHP Max Fried RHP George Kirby
55% 45%
3 . game Sunday 11 September | 1:10 pm
RHP Jake Odorese LHP Marco Gonzalez
52% 48%

*Game odds courtesy of Fangraves

Team overview

Summary brave sailors edge
Summary brave sailors edge
hit (wRC +) 111 (4th in the NL) 106 (fifth in AL) brave
Fielding (OAA) 6 (V) 8 (fourth) sailors
Rotation Initiation (FIP-) 89 (fourth) 105 (8) brave
Bullpen (FIP-) 84 (2nd) 94 (seventh) brave

Atlanta Braves won an award World Championship last year. Yes, this is the series against the MLB champions. After winning the NL East race with a win percentage of 0.547 last year, the Braves are second in their division today despite a much higher 0.628 win percentage. Atlanta was dancing behind mets all year, and they finally went into a tie to lead the division last week. Although they lost half the match again, they are all guaranteed a place in a playoff, 11 games ahead of the second wild card.

The Braves are sweeping Seattle after winning seven times in a row with many great performances. Many of those matches were against inferior teams, but make no mistake: The Braves are a tough team to face (note in the chart above that they rank higher than the Sailors in all categories except for field play). Fortunately for the M’s, we won’t be up against their rookie star Spencer Strider, but we will be up against spin-off announcer Max Fried and all of the many powerful bats in the lineup.

Brave lineup

player Site bat Palestinian Authority baby wRC + BSR
player Site bat Palestinian Authority baby wRC + BSR
Ronald Acuña Jr. DH s 443 0.344 117 4.0
Dansby Swanson SS s 589 0.368 117 3.4
Austin Riley 3 b s 590 0.325 150 -1.0
Matt Olson 1 b The 600 0.277 121 -1.3
Travis Darno c s 354 0.301 120 -2.4
Michael Harris II CF The 344 0.381 143 4.7
von Grissom 2B s 103 0.389 164 1.5
Marcel Ozuna LF s 467 0.246 83 -2.4
Robbie Grossman RF s 414 0.285 78 -0.5

You’ll notice, if you haven’t watched the Atlanta game since last year’s playoffs, that the Braves lineup looks surprisingly different than last year. Former club and offensive leader Freddy Freeman went to Dodgers This year, but the core of the brave held firm in his absence. Veteran first baseman Matt Olson, Freeman’s replacement, is putting on a solid season with 121 wRC+ in 600 board appearances. The team’s fWAR leaders are Dansby Swanson and third baseman Austin Riley, the latter with 150 wRC+. Swanson and Riley are just two from Atlanta five This year’s All-Stars, other AFC Champions League players Ronald Acuna Jr., late catcher Travis D’Arno, All-Star brother William Contreras and ice pitcher Max Fried are all treated.

Atlanta also has three rookies to watch. Two contender for the NL Rookie of the Year award: Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider. Strider seems to be the current favourite; He has an ERA of less than 2.70 and a Huge write-down rate of 38%Harris owns 143 wRC+ and over 4 fWARs. Both Bring a positive presence in the clubas he does Contact hitter von Grissom, whose stats reveal an exciting entry into the MLB stage since he was called up a month ago. All three will be players to watch in the coming years (when the Sailors see them annually no matter what team they’re on), so this Braves lineup has plenty to recommend tuning in for a game or two.

Potential jugs

Updated stuff + explanation

Brett Davis USA Today Sports

RHB Charlie Morton

IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% era FIP
IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% era FIP
146 28.7% 8.5% 15.0% 39.6% 4.01 3.96
spit Repetition velocity rotation rate things + whiff + BIP +
four stitches 33.5% 95.0 2381 120 98 82
sinker 10.3% 94.7 2195 133 48 81
cutter 10.1% 88.4 2554 105 108 166
change 8.1% 87.1 2161 138 112 86
Curveball 38.0% 81.1 3071 135 133 85

Charlie Morton flirted with his retirement after the 2020 season but decided to sign with the Braves, the team that drafted him way back in 2002, and secured a World Championship ring. He enjoyed promoting in Atlanta so much, he signed a one-year extension in September before the regular 21 season ended. His follow-up campaign didn’t go as well as his championship season last year. He still relies heavily on one of the best curveballs in the majors and continues to hit a huge number of hits. Unfortunately, he lost about half a mark on his Fastball and was simply not sharp; The gait rate is high and more hit balls are lifted and fly over fences more often.

LHP Max Fried

IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% era FIP
IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% era FIP
163 1/3 23.1% 4.3% 6.3% 52.5% 2.48 2.49
spit Repetition velocity rotation rate things + whiff + BIP +
four stitches 32.9% 94.1 2138 69 70 132
sinker 12.9% 93.6 2027 105 118 84
change 13.3% 86.6 1410 87 115 83
Curveball 21.4% 74.2 2726 103 127 112
slider 19.6% 87.3 2394 143 84 78

Max Fried won’t blow you away with his flashy strike squads. Instead, it does just about everything a bowler is supposed to do well. Keeps rackets out of the norm by limiting walking? examines. Does he keep the ball on the ground when put into play? examines. Pitches efficiently and last in deep gaming? examines. Fried doesn’t need to raise the hits because the rest of his approach is too strong. Topped by two excellent breakout balls and a recently developed change to keep the right-hander at bay is his deep ensemble. His fastballs aren’t great, but they get the job done and let his secondary performances play out.

RHP Jake Odorese

IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% era FIP
IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% era FIP
85 1/3 18.3% 6.7% 9.3% 33.5% 3.90 4.21
spit Repetition velocity rotation rate things + whiff + BIP +
four stitches 52.6% 92.2 2149 94 100 102
cutter 19.7% 87.8 2084 80 90 103
separator 15.2% 85.3 1350 73 78 70
Curveball 4.4% 71.9 2205 80
slider 8.1% 82.8 2068 83 57 60

From a previous preview of the series:

Jake Odorizzi struggled through a shaky path in the middle of his career. Probably starting with the Rays, he didn’t really get it all together in Tampa Bay. His big hit came in Minnesota in 2019; It recorded a high job strike rate of 27.1% that year and 4.3 fWAR. Tagged with a qualifying offer that was accepted out of the season, he returned to the Twins on a one-year deal. Unfortunately, injuries cost him most of the short 2020 season, making Minnesota just four entries. He signed a two-year deal with Astros Late last spring, but a few minor injuries once again prevented him from replicating the success he enjoyed in 2019. With a recent typical fastball with plenty of carry, he’s been a bit of a homer in his career. All of his minor offerings are inconsistent at best, making him overly dependent on the heater.

Odorizzi was traded to Atlanta on the trade deadline because the Astros were looking to revitalize Lance McCullers Jr. outside IL. He’s giving the small Braves on the field another veteran arm to soak up some innings along the stretch, though his performance hasn’t quite stood out since the trade. He’s made five starts as a brave and posted 4.26 ERA and 5.64 FIP, both of which are what he’s been posting with the Astros.

The Big Picture:

Al Gharb

Team WL W% games behind last model
Team WL W% games behind last model
Astros 88-49 0.642 LWWLW
sailors 77-60 0.562 11.0 WWLWL
Angels 60-77 0.438 28.0 WLWWL
Notice 59-77 0.434 28.5 LLLWL
Athletics 50-88 0.362 38.5 LWLL

Wild Card Racing

Team WL W% games behind last model
Team WL W% games behind last model
rays 77-58 0.570 +1.5 WLWWW
sailors 77-60 0.562 +0.5 WWLWL
blue jays 76-60 0.559 WWWLW
Orioles 72-65 0.526 4.5 LLLWL
twins 69-67 0.507 7.0 WLLLLW
white socks 70-68 0.507 7.0 LWLWW

Conditions remained unchanged in the AL West standings; The Astros have led 10-12 games over the Mariners since before the first Star Break, and the other three teams have lost steadily since. The Angels have finally overtaken the Rangers in the standings now that Mike Trout is healthy, although that hurts their chances of getting a top pick in the new draft lottery. The other major news this week is that Athletics has become the first AL team to be athletically eliminated from a 2022 play-off match.

In the AL Wild Card race, the Mariners were brought back to second place, once in the Rays and half of the game over Toronto. If the season ends now, the Rays will host the Mariners in Tampa for a three-game series, and the Blue Jays will play a similar three-game series in Cleveland (who led by a game-and-a-half over the Twins and White Sox at AL Central). If Mariners fans root for the team’s interests this weekend, we’ll have to stick our noses up, as the Blues play three games at Yankee Stadium and three Blue Jays games against Rangers in Texas. Less alarmingly, the Oriole hosts red socks For a series of three games as well.