Series Preview: Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox

It’s a tough way to start home, with a daytime game after eleven rounds of baseball, a four-and-a-half hour rain delay, and a flight home from Cleveland the night before. However, the sailors came back victorious, having passed their entire voyage of six matches against the Tigers and Guardians. Writer Zack Mason points out that if the team played 0.500 balls the rest of the season, they would win 90 games!

The house that starts today with a streak against Chicago White Sox It’s the season’s final major challenge for M (a warning, of course, that bad teams outsmart good teams all the time). These eight games will be Seattle’s last against unbeaten teams: The White Sox enter the day with a record .500, and both Braves and Padres have winning records. This series is also the last time the Mariners will go head-to-head in the regular season against another AL team with playoff hopes; A streak win would go a long way in getting the team ahead and pushing the competition down.

Quick overview

white socks sailors
white socks sailors
1 . game Monday 5 September | 3:40 pm
RHB Lance Lin LHP Marco Gonzalez
52% 48%
2 . game Tuesday, September 6 | 6:40 pm
RHB Johnny Koito RHB Logan Gilbert
45% 55%
3 . game Wednesday 7 September | 1:10 pm
RHB Michael Kubis RHB Luis Castillo
36% 64%

*Game odds courtesy of Fangraves

Team overview

Summary white socks sailors edge
Summary white socks sailors edge
hit (wRC +) 102 (9th in AL) 106 (fifth in AL) sailors
Fielding (OAA) -13 (15) 9 (fourth) sailors
Rotation Initiation (FIP-) 99 (sixth) 105 (8) white socks
Bullpen (FIP-) 90 (V) 94 (seventh) white socks

The White Sox were a big favorite to win AL Central this year, but the final month of the season found them third in a three-way race with the Twins and Guardians. As of this morning, The Guardians and Twins have identical records, and the White Sox are two games behind. Only one of the three will likely make the playoffs, because the two who didn’t win the class slot went to fifth and sixth in the wild card race, five games in a row. Of the three teams, Chicago is the weakest schedule forceis 25th in MLB (M sits beautifully at 29 out of 30).

Seattle lost two of three in Chicago in the first home series for the White Sox in April. Since then, some of the key faces on the team have changed, but they continue to act offensively (see below for more on that). One notably missing face is that of Chicago manager, Tony La Russa, who is out indefinitely for unspecified medical reasons. Most recently, the White Sox had two out of three games from the Twins, winning Saturday’s game by a massive 13-0. Our sister site, Southside Soxcalls this series against sailors “pivotal“In the team’s race beyond the season.

White Sox Collection

player Site bat Palestinian Authority baby wRC + BSR
player Site bat Palestinian Authority baby wRC + BSR
Elvis Andrews SS R 451 0.275 102 2.2
Andrew Fon LF R 465 0.315 125 -2.2
Louis Robert CF R 378 0.343 124 4.7
Joseph Ebro 1 b R 573 0.355 142 -0.9
Eloy Jimenez DH R 224 0.342 138 -0.1
javen leaves RF The 331 0.285 111 -2.3
Yasmani Grandal c s 305 0.256 74 -5.2
Josh Harrison 3 b R 362 0.288 96 -1.8
Romy Gonzalez 2B R 47 0.364 105 -0.3

The White Sox has a solid lineup of hitters. Although the team fell somewhat short of expectations, seven of the initial nine teams have above average in WRC+, and five of the nine over 120. Jose Abreu leads the team with 143 wRC+ and 3.5 fWAR and leads the league in strokes. with 156; Abreu is one of a handful of non-Aaron-Judge players to lead the AL in any offensive class. Some points in the White Sox lineup look very different than expected earlier in the season: Yoán Moncada has lost a lot of time to injuries this year (and is currently suffering from a strained hamstring), so Josh Harrison has had the majority start from third. Short-cut Tim Anderson underwent surgery in early August to repair ligaments in his finger, and the White Sox were able to sign veteran Elvis Andros as a freelancer to replace him.

Potential jugs

Updated stuff + explanation

David Banks USA Today Sports

RHB Lance Lin

IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% era FIP
IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% era FIP
84 1/3 25.7% 3.7% 17.6% 42.3% 4.70 4.14
spit Repetition velocity rotation rate things + whiff + BIP +
four stitches 43.7% 93.0 2428 55 162 90
sinker 15.0% 91.6 2316 87 118 83
cutter 22.9% 89.0 2598 123 109 98
change 4.8% 85.8 1836 72
Curveball 8.1% 82.4 2517 95 103 83
slider 5.5% 86.7 2542 133

Lance Lane missed more than two months to start the season after a spring knee injury kept him out of action before opening day. He got back on the heap in mid-June but really struggled after activating it off IL. All his peripherals seem to be up to the standards of his career with 3.26 xFIP that really stands out. The long ball really burned him because his age is about a half and a half ahead of the xFIP. He lost about an mph from his two primary fast balls and their form has deteriorated this year as well. Those small changes in his repertoire might be the main reason behind his struggle.

RHB Johnny Koito

IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% era FIP
IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% era FIP
129 15.7% 5.2% 8.6% 44.6% 2.93 3.88
spit Repetition velocity rotation rate things + whiff + BIP +
four stitches 17.2% 91.5 2196 52 108 110
sinker 25.9% 91.4 2116 94 67 122
cutter 16.4% 86.9 2186 67 42 96
change 21.7% 82.6 1329 120 71 80
slider 18.6% 83.6 2233 101 58 94

Johnny Koito was hired by the White Sox right after Lynn had a knee injury but managed to play well enough to stay in Chicago all season. After completing his six-year stint in San Francisco with a better, healthier season since 2017, Koito is following him up with an even better performance this year. His strike rate was nowhere near where it was during his heyday, but he figured out how to use his profound arsenal and deceptive mechanics to curb tough contact against him, turning him completely into a liaison manager late in his career.

RHB Michael Kubis

IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% era FIP
IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% era FIP
110 2/3 21.4% 12.0% 9.0% 35.9% 3.58 4.45
spit Repetition velocity rotation rate things + whiff + BIP +
four stitches 61.8% 94.9 2534 145 125 118
change 1.2% 85.2 1625
Curveball 10.4% 78.4 2401 67 79 90
slider 26.7% 84.3 2389 93 59 82

Michael Kubisch was a key member of the White Sox Bullpen last year, but has evolved into a potential starter. Chicago committed to getting him back on the starting course this spring and the big question was whether or not his top-notch stuff would translate back into longer outings. His hitting rate isn’t great, and he walks quite a lot of hitters, but overall, he was a solid mid-turn player in his first full season on the course. The biggest problem is that he doesn’t have a consistent third option in his kit and his best secondary move, the slider, has taken a huge step backwards this year. His Fastball remains one of the top players in the majors and he relies heavily on them. A knee injury forced him off the heap in late August, but he should be revitalized after spending minimal time on IL in time for Wednesday’s start.

The Big Picture:

Al Gharb

Team WL W% games behind last model
Team WL W% games behind last model
Astros 86-48 0.642 WWWLW
sailors 76-58 0.567 10.0 WWWWW
Notice 58-75 0.436 27.5 LLLLL
Angels 58-76 0.433 28.0 LWLWL
Athletics 50-85 0.370 36.5 LLLLW

Wild Card Racing

Team WL W% games behind last model
Team WL W% games behind last model
sailors 76-58 0.567 +2.0 WWWWW
rays 74-58 0.561 +1.0 WWWWL
blue jays 73-59 0.553 WLWWW
Orioles 71-62 0.534 2.5 WWWWL
guardians 68-64 0.515 5.0 LLLLL
twins 68-64 0.515 5.0 WLLLLW
white socks 67-67 0.500 7.0 WWWWL
red socks 67-68 0.496 7.5 WWWWW

At AL West, recent preview notes still apply: The partition arrangement seems to have solidified at this point, with Astros Keeping 10-12 games ahead of the Mariners (and has the best MLS record). Rangers have fallen a bit further behind the Sailors than they were last week, but there has been no meaningful change in the teams’ standings since before the All-Star break. This week the Astros host Rangers for a series of three matches.

In the Wild Card Race, sailors climbed to the top! They have one game lead over the Rays and two over the Blue Jays, in the second and third slots. If the season ends now, the Mariners will host the Rays for a three-game playoff series in Seattle, and the Blue Jays play a similar three-game series in Cleveland (who would win AL Central for their season series win against the Twins at this point). There is room for plenty of intrigue this week with a host of AL East matches providing opportunities for those teams to beat each other. Over the next few days, Rays will be hosting red socks For three, the Blue Jays will head to Baltimore to play the Orioles for four, the Guards will play three at the Royals, and Yankees It hosts twins of four.