The Mets lose Scherzer, and momentarily, lead them in the Middle East

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Last week, Mets flex their muscles By taking two out of three Dodgers — the top team’s main team by win-loss record, differential runs, and most other actions — at Citi Field. They woke up Wednesday morning to a new reality. Not only did they tie them up to first place in the Eastern National League with the Braves, but they also had to rank up Max Scherzer On the list of injured due to a tilt injury to his left side for the second time this season; Later that day, they announced it Starling Mart He also suffered a non-displaced fracture of his right middle finger. The rendezvous may not be considered a crisis in Queens, but the playoff races have certainly shifted less.

The Braves’ claim to the top spot was the first time since April 11 – and only the second time all season – that the Mets didn’t have the division lead. However, by the end of the day, the Mets had once again held the lead for themselves thanks to the 5-1 and 10-0 lb Pirates of Pittsburgh, setting their record 87-51, while the Braves beat the A to go up to 86-51.

As for Scherzer, he had the chance of his 200th career win, as the 38-year-old right-hander left Saturday’s start against the Nationals after just five rounds, 67 runs and one allowed in. After the final exit of the inning – during which he was assisted with a routine pass Eldemaro Vargas – Sherzer gestures for shooting coach Jeremy Hefner to follow him into the dugout tunnel, then makes way for the savior Tommy Hunter To start the sixth.

After that, both the bowler and the Mets described the early exit as a precautionary move. Across Joe Teresa from MLB.com:

“I don’t have any strains,” Scherzer said. “The left side was getting tired more than usual. This was a precautionary move given the history of the deflector. Was there a scenario where I could get out of sixth and be fine? Yes. It could have happened. But if I went out to sixth and got hurt, I wouldn’t I could never come here and look men in the face and say I made the right decision. It was better to be safe than sorry in this scenario.”

Manager Buck Showalter said, “He didn’t ask to come out. We didn’t think it was a good idea to push it, and hopefully he can make his next start.”

An MRI taken on Tuesday revealed persistent inflammation on Scherzer’s left side, so the Mets decided to put him on IL retroactively through Sunday, which means he qualifies for a comeback on Sept. These are days, not weeks. He said The bowler before Wednesday with the double header. “This isn’t a major injury…it’s not stress.”

In what I may cherish as Jaffe’s first law, there are no minor injuries to 38-year-old shooters who count on starting many post-season the following month, because even a minor setback can derail those plans. Older adults, even stars associated with Cooperstown, don’t recover as quickly as they used to no matter how stiff their upper lips are, and if you need a reminder, remember that last fall, Scherzer resist To bounce back from a similar kind of post-season cameo that he had done just two years earlier (against the Dodgers, no less). That’s why a bowler who was on a five-day rest after making 112 shots against the Rockies at home — as Scherzer did on August 28 — reported fatigue in the first place: His body just couldn’t do all it could a few years ago. . Welcome to the club, my friend.

The Mets, who had to live without Scherzer for nearly seven weeks after he landed on Ell with a strain tilted left in late May, realized. Looking at the era of Welpon for the team Tendency to mismanage injuriesThis admission is good news. It’s definitely better than leaving Scherzer on the list for several more days without throwing up, exacerbating the situation with a short start or a more serious injury. As it stands, he’ll miss two games, preferably two in early to mid-September, when the Mets face a poor schedule — they’ll face the Marlins, Cubs, and Buccaneers before Scherzer becomes eligible for a comeback — from October.

Regardless of his age, Scherzer did particularly well in his first year with the Mets, posting a 2.26 ERA and 2.53 FIP in 127.2 innings, 10.1 less than what is needed to qualify for the ERA title. Among NL shooters with at least 120 rounds, his ERA is second only to Tony Johnslinwhose mark is 2.10 in 128.1 innings is similarly less than the cut-off and will remain there because he set himself up with Maybe not so small Forearm strain. to leave Julius Urea (2.29 ERA in 145.2 in rounds) as the official leader, with Sandy Alcantara (2.36 ERA in 190.2 runs) and Impurities Zach Galen (2.42 in 152.2 innings) within walking distance.

Thanks in part to Carlos CarrascoAfter returning from an IL assignment due to a slash strain on Sunday, the Mets cycled through six starters (Taiguan WalkerAnd the Jacob DegromAnd the Chris BassettAnd the David Peterson, and Scherzer, too) over six games. Most likely, the way forward in the absence of Scherzer is to hold on to Peterson, who made a 3.32 ERA and 3.54 Fib in the 95 Rounds this year, with 2.53 ERA and 1.85 Fib in four starts for a total of 21.1 innings in August and September. Valid Trevor Williams (2.92 ERA, 4.07 FIP) is another option, but he started only once in the second half, and maxed out at 71 pitches.

Even with the easy schedule in mind, anyone who fills Scherzer’s place would be competing in the NL East. The Mets went 34-17 in April and May, taking a 10.5-game lead over the slow-start Braves (23-27). Since then, the defending champions have outpaced the Dodgers:

Best NL teams since May 31

Team W The WL% GB RS RA snake wl%
brave 63 24 .724 476 300 .699
Dodgers 61 26 .701 2 463 281 .714
Phyllis 54 32 .628 8.5 412 345 .580
mets 53 34 .609 10 377 320 .574

Source: baseball reference

The Mets have played at a 97-win pace since the start of June…and that wasn’t enough to fend off the Braves, who caught them by playing at a 117-win pace during that time. The Dodgers are the only other team to play 0.724 balls over 87 games this year, and they’ve done so over two staggered stretches, the last of which began on May 16 and ended on August 21. An ongoing effort like any team he mustered this year to catch up with the Mets, who are still on track to win 102 games, based on their 0.630 overall win percentage, and across our expectations. our Play-off odds Give them a 62.5% chance of winning the NL East race, and an almost identical chance of winning the first round, although both are down 22.9 points from last week, when the Mets were still three games ahead.

Although their three-game losing streak from Saturday to Tuesday matches their longest slip of the season (they also lost three consecutive games from June 26-29 and July 17-23), the Mets were nonetheless 23-14 (. 621) since the beginning of August, and from 40 to 22 (.645) since the beginning of July. Regardless of September, they recorded a win percentage of 0.633 or better every month except June, when they went from 13 to 12 (.520), a period when it was no coincidence without both Scherzer and deGrom, and when Francis Lindor Hitting .202/.255/.362 (77 wRC+) amid what was nonetheless a season-caliber MVP. Lindor, as it turned out, broken He tip his right middle finger when the hotel door closed on June 1st. The injury escaped my memory when to examine His brilliant season two weeks ago, in part because he only missed one game, but that may have contributed to his struggles.

Let’s look at the ranking table again, this time from the beginning of July:

Best NL teams since June 30

Team W The WL% GB RS RA snake wl%
Dodgers 47 14 .770 354 187 .763
brave 42 18 .700 4.5 321 200 .704
mets 40 22 .645 7.5 277 205 .634
basics 38 21 .644 8 299 233 .612

Source: baseball reference

That’s a much smaller difference between the NL East competitors, who have been playing in 113 and 104 steps over a 10-week period. Both on-court staff were particularly stingy during this stretch, with the Braves allowing 3.33 runs per game, the Mets 3.31. The difference is that Atlanta scored 5.35 points per game during that period, while New York scored 4.47 points per game.

Speaking of Lindor and broken fingers, Mart hit his right hand at 96mph Mitch Keeler fastball tuesday night was diagnosed with an undisplaced partial fracture of his right middle finger on Wednesday. For now, he considers it a day-to-day, although he might end up spending a stint in IL and actually miss it. The 33-year-old right-hand man had his career best last year of 134 wRC+ by hitting .292/.347/.468 with 16 home runs and stealing 18 team bases.

If he is not able to play, Tyler Naken It is a potential filling. Naquin has had .248/.302/.465 (107 wRC+) overall and more .254/.293/.521 unbalanced (129 wRC+) since it was acquired from the Reds on July 28. Need a platoon partner, but for now, the only swing defense players on the list are sprinters Terrence Gorwho has appeared on only one board since 2019, and There is a reputation, who has only four innings on the field since acquiring it on August 2nd; Additionally, it only hit .163/.208/.233 at 48 PA as a gauge. The closest thing the team has to a reliable right-swing stadium option in Triple-A Syracuse is Mark Windsthey Eighth place probabilitybut he is actually a corner player with all 13 games of experience on the left field, in 2021. Britt Patty‘s Right thumb surgerywas the wind It is considered To call, but with Louis Gillorm On IL too, the team chose to go with short ability (if 27 major league rounds in the past six seasons can be counted as capable) Devin Marero While that. After a thigh strain in mid-August, Guillorme went on a rehab mission on Tuesday, and it could be activated soon.

Whoever runs the short half of the platoon while away may prove hypothetical is a relatively minor concern for Scherzer’s injury, which in itself may be minor as the bowler and team suggest. The good news is that the Mets have played exceptionally well for most of the season, and while the Braves have caught up, Atlanta have a much tighter schedule, with three against the Mariners and seven against the Phillies before facing them. New York in Atlanta from September 30 to October 2. The only other games for the Mets against teams .500 or better are the three games they will play in Milwaukee from September 19-21. All of this has already been weighed down by the odds. By being careful with Scherzer, the Mets do their best to make sure they stay in their best interest.