When might Judge Aaron clash with a historic race?

© Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

Aaron Judge He’s doing something that most baseball fans, including me, have never seen in their lives: he’s running home in the Major League. Even if you don’t do some steroid related asterisks Barry Bonds et al, transient Babe Ruth And the Roger Maris It is a heck of an accomplishment; If you wanted to put your fingers in your ears and ignore the late ’90s and early 2000s, that makes chasing the judge all the more important. Really, this is an exciting time to pursue baseball.

Normally, I’m the writer who pours cold water on everyone’s pleasure during chases like this. “Sure, it works really well Currently, “I would say, ‘But if you look at his career numbers, he’s falling short. Well, that’s not true! If you look at our depth chart projections, our average Judge forecast gives him a season of 62 houses.

That’s a boring, dry number, but in baseball stats, it’s rare and exceptional. Obviously, expecting someone to break a record is rare – records are usually broken by phenomenal performance, not mediocre results. In celebration of that, I thought I’d put in more analytical rigor and give people an idea of ​​not only if, but when The judge may hit the home run number 60, 61, or 62.

I wanted an easy-to-understand process, so I kept it simple. I took the remaining table for the Yankees, then noted the HR/9+ for each remaining team (from a group Plus Stats), a garden worker running the right home for the place (from Statcast’s New Garden Factors), and whether I think Judge will play that day. I also used our predictions to get what we consider to be the true current level of home runs per board (7.14%, for those of you keeping score at home).

With all these numbers, I’ve done the obvious: simulated Judge’s remaining table a million times. In each case, I ignored everything about the games other than whether Judge had a successful home run (and, of course, how much). I set a board appearance fairly randomly: it averaged a 4.5 per game that started this year, which turned it into 54% chance of four, 41% chance of five, and 5% chance of six. To account for the rest, I gave him one day off full (to go with the Yankees’ four scheduled days off) and one day where he was only pinching the hits, restricting him to a single plate look. I put them on the calendar on September 9 (Knockout Day) and September 24 (Holiday), but there’s obviously a lot of variance about that.

By doing this and keeping home run statistics, I came up with a distribution that shows when a judge might reach 60th, 61st, and 62nd. Is this scientific? They are not. Are they stylish? I’m sure I think so. Let’s say, for example, that money and travel aren’t a hindrance and you desperately want to see Judge 60 at home if that happens, but for some reason you can only attend one match. Which game should you go to?

Assuming all of the assumptions I made above are true, the best chance of seeing the judge who is #60 comes on September 26 in Toronto:

Aaron Judge odds of running 60 at home

day Discount home away Odds of reaching 60 hours
9/7 Minnesota residence 0.0%
9/7 (AED) Minnesota residence 0.0%
9/8 Minnesota residence 0.1%
9/9 Tampa Bay residence 0.0%
9/10 Tampa Bay residence 0.3%
9/11 Tampa Bay residence 0.7%
9/13 Boston far 1.3%
9/14 Boston far 2.1%
9/16 Milwaukee far 3.4%
9/17 Milwaukee far 4.5%
9/18 Milwaukee far 5.5%
9/20 Pittsburgh residence 5.4%
9/21 Pittsburgh residence 5.9%
9/22 Boston residence 6.5%
9/23 Boston residence 6.5%
9/24 Boston residence 0% (rest day)
9/25 Boston residence 6.6%
9/26 Toronto far 6.9%
9/27 Toronto far 6.5%
9/28 Toronto far 5.9%
9/30 Baltimore residence 4.7%
10/1 Baltimore residence 4.2%
10/2 Baltimore residence 3.7%
10/3 Texas far 2.7%
10/4 Texas far 2.4%
10/4 (AED) Texas far 2.1%
10/5 Texas far 1.8%

DH = double head

This does not mean that it is yours Just Chance, but it’s the best singles game. This series and the previous series, in the Bronx against the Red Sox, are the two best picks for watching the Judge on a Ruth match from 1927. If I’m wrong about when the judge gets a day off – if the team would rather rest on the road to increase the chances of hitting 60 goals at home, For example – this brings the last game from Boston to the top.

What about Homer Number 61? If you want to see a tie with Judge Maris, you’ll want to head to Toronto again:

Aaron Judge odds of running 61 at home

day Discount home away Odds of getting to position 61
9/7 Minnesota residence 0.0%
9/7 (AED) Minnesota residence 0.0%
9/8 Minnesota residence 0.0%
9/9 Tampa Bay residence 0.0%
9/10 Tampa Bay residence 0.1%
9/11 Tampa Bay residence 0.2%
9/13 Boston far 0.4%
9/14 Boston far 0.8%
9/16 Milwaukee far 1.5%
9/17 Milwaukee far 2.3%
9/18 Milwaukee far 3.2%
9/20 Pittsburgh residence 3.5%
9/21 Pittsburgh residence 4.1%
9/22 Boston residence 5.0%
9/23 Boston residence 5.5%
9/24 Boston residence 0% (rest day)
9/25 Boston residence 5.7%
9/26 Toronto far 6.6%
9/27 Toronto far 6.7%
9/28 Toronto far 6.5%
9/30 Baltimore residence 5.6%
10/1 Baltimore residence 5.2%
10/2 Baltimore residence 4.9%
10/3 Texas far 3.7%
10/4 Texas far 3.3%
10/4 (AED) Texas far 3.1%
10/5 Texas far 2.8%

DH = double head

And number 62? You guessed it: you’re due to make another visit to our neighbors to the north:

Aaron Judge 62 home run odds

day Discount home away Odds of reaching position 62
9/7 Minnesota residence 0.0%
9/7 (AED) Minnesota residence 0.0%
9/8 Minnesota residence 0.0%
9/9 Tampa Bay residence 0.0%
9/10 Tampa Bay residence 0.0%
9/11 Tampa Bay residence 0.0%
9/13 Boston far 0.1%
9/14 Boston far 0.2%
9/16 Milwaukee far 0.5%
9/17 Milwaukee far 1.0%
9/18 Milwaukee far 1.5%
9/20 Pittsburgh residence 1.9%
9/21 Pittsburgh residence 2.5%
9/22 Boston residence 3.2%
9/23 Boston residence 3.8%
9/24 Boston residence 0% (rest day)
9/25 Boston residence 5.7%
9/26 Toronto far 5.5%
9/27 Toronto far 5.4%
9/28 Toronto far 5.8%
9/30 Baltimore residence 5.6%
10/1 Baltimore residence 5.5%
10/2 Baltimore residence 5.4%
10/3 Texas far 4.2%
10/4 Texas far 4.0%
10/4 (AED) Texas far 3.8%
10/5 Texas far 3.6%

DH = double head

It seemed strange to me that the last series of the season was no better in this simulation, but the more I think about it, the more it makes sense. The judge hit 62 homes in 68% of my simulations thanks to a combination of me that gives him a little more look than the depth charts and my knowledge of the parks and opponents he’ll face. Sometimes, this means that it will break through 62, and go up to 65, for example, or 66. In those cases, it will override 62 on the previous side.

On the contrary, he doesn’t get there at all very often – basically a third of the time. That means there aren’t a lot of scenarios where they both start slow – not hitting 60 to 62 before the end of the final week of the season – and finish at 62 or more. The board last appeared of the year in some simulations, but those are hardly the majority. If you consider the probability distribution of times Judge hits at least 62, it makes sense that the focus was before the end of the year. The best way to get to 62 is to go down to sores in the next few weeks – but that in and of itself makes it unlikely the record will remain intact in October.

Some odds and ends: There’s about a 50% chance, in this simulation, that he’ll hit the 60th house in the house. There’s a 49% chance he’ll hit #61 there, and a 47% chance he’ll hit #62 there (it all depends on if he actually hits that milestone). If Judge hits any of these historical numbers, there’s a chance of flipping the coin in front of a beloved local crowd.

There’s a fun dip between the last game in the Minnesota series and the first game in the Tampa Bay series. It’s not because Tampa Bay’s show is really good — it’s because I gave Judge most of the day in that first game of the Rays series. It won’t happen yet – 500 out of a million simulations the judge was going on a rough run of the house in the next three days – but it looks weird on the schedule, so I thought I should explain it. In a different context, the combination of Globe Life Field and surprisingly respected Texas staff — at least when it comes to preventing home runs — means that if the judge isn’t at 62 before the final weekend of the season, he’ll have his work cut out for him.

Brief summary of all this: The best series to go to, if you want to see history in person, is September 26-28 in Toronto. Next, the two primary series that wrap up that one: four against Boston from September 22-25, and three against Baltimore from September 29 to October 1. Where should you sit To catch the highly anticipated ball to break records. Happy date hunting!